Public debt and the Iran war
Public debt and the safety net
RUSARM INFO · 4 minutes
“In 2018, the national debt consisted primarily of external debt, meaning we primarily borrowed US dollars and other currencies to cover domestic expenses. By 2024, it was already approximately 50% domestic. Both internal and external debt have their pros and cons: we pay more interest to secure the internal debt, but if the dram depreciates by 20%, then securing the external debt will become 20% more expensive. According to the EAEU treaty, the total national debt to GDP ratio should not exceed 50%, but ours already exceeds 50%, which is dangerous. That is, if we experience internal or external negative impacts on the economy, we will have to increase this debt cushion from 50% to, say, 55-60%.”
The Iran War and Armenian Trade
RUSARM INFO · 55 minutes
“The economic losses are not so great, because, it is true, the Islamic Republic of Iran is our immediate neighbor, but our trade turnover is not so great. We mainly export electricity in exchange for gas, that is, we import gas and export electricity. The Armenia-India connection also runs through Iran. 2025 is not a very good year for the Republic of Armenia economically, and restricting trade turnover may also negatively impact our economy. We are already seeing the trade of the Republic of Armenia shrink. For example, exports are already below 10 billion for the 12-month period.”