Behind the Averages: GDP, Wages, and Debt | Tvyal Analysis

IT sector: employees are not increasing, output is increasing

Gortsarar aliq FM106.5 · 26 minutes

“Since the beginning of 2023, over the past two and a half years, neither the number of employees nor the salary has increased in the IT sector, which is worrying at first glance, because this may mean some stagnation. However, the IT sector does not work like that. The number of employees and salaries in the IT sector may not change, but innovations may emerge, that is, the code they use may be of better quality and provide more added value. If until 2022, one employee contributed about 3 million drams to the total GDP, then at the moment one employee contributes 5 million drams.”

Debt, money and cost efficiency

ReOpen Media · 8 minutes

“Our dollar-denominated state debt has grown considerably, but the ratio of state debt to GDP has not grown much, that is, it has remained at 50% over the past few years. If in 2018 only 20% was dram-denominated debt, now 50% is dram-denominated, 50% is dollar-denominated, so that in the event of exchange rate risk, it would not be 70%, which could be catastrophic for the Republic of Armenia, but 60%. The problem in the Republic of Armenia is not so much borrowing money, but the problem of spending. We have a clear problem of ensuring the effectiveness of spending, which has not been clearly assessed.”

What’s hidden behind GDP growth?

Gortsarar aliq FM106.5 · 31 minutes

“The main subclass of real estate activities shows the potential rental value of apartments across your country as a whole. That is, you may not create added value, but if the potential rental value in your economy increases, you record GDP growth. You are sitting at home, your pocketbook has not increased, but the potential rental price of your house has increased, which has ensured GDP growth. The average indicator of GDP growth in the Republic of Armenia over the past 20 years is approximately 4 percent, which is in fact a pretty good indicator, and no matter what we do or don’t do, it will return to that indicator.”

Mining industry: a counterbalance to the regions

Gortsarar aliq FM106.5 · 28 minutes

“Economic developments in recent years have been mainly in the capital Yerevan, and the mining industry is the main counterweight to regional development. The mining industry currently provides about 13,000 jobs, mainly within the regions. This number has grown significantly. In 2018, it was 9,200 employees. It is not large mines, but small mines that mainly cause damage to the environment, because large mines are able to make additional large investments to minimize these negative impacts.”

Winds from outside and justified debt

Gortsarar aliq FM106.5 · 30 minutes

“From 2002 to 2007, we had an average economic growth of 12%, but it was clear that 10 percentage points of economic growth came from outside, we provided 2%. Imagine, winds from outside in the form of money lifted an airplane in the name of the Republic of Armenia into the air, and suddenly that air was gone, and that airplane did not land, but fell and collapsed. If you understand that at this moment you are taking on debt so that your future self feels good, that is, you are making a certain investment, you are creating a factory, then that debt is justified.”

Average salary and average person’s salary

Gortsarar aliq FM106.5 · 27 minutes

“The average person’s salary in the Republic of Armenia currently amounts to, we are talking about a dirty salary, about 240,000 drams, if we subtract taxes, then that number will become about 175,000 drams, that is, half of the employees receive a clean salary of less than 175,000 drams. The average salary in the banking sector is currently almost a million drams, and the median salary in the banking system is about 400,000 drams. There is a joke that a statistician is the only specialist who can drown in half a meter of average water.”

50% increase in pensions

PanoramaamTV · 5 minutes

“Inflation affects low-income citizens more heavily, since they mainly consume food, that is, food accounts for 50-60% of their basket. Over the past two years, potatoes alone have recorded a growth of 67%, and vegetables in general - by 25%. If we are talking about increasing all pensions, then what we have at the moment, it will make up 2-3% of the budget, and this can be done within two to three years.”