Iran Crisis and Capital Flows

The security crisis in Iran and the Middle East has triggered a massive influx of capital into Armenia, driving an unexpected 7.2% GDP growth against the forecasted 5-5.5%. Capital exiting Persian Gulf states, notably Dubai, is primarily concentrating in the Armenian banking system, which subsequently fuels the real estate and construction sectors to an outsized 38% of GDP. Concurrently, there is a substantial risk of further AMD appreciation to 360-365 per USD, threatening the competitiveness of domestic exporters and the IT sector. The delayed effects of disrupted global supply chains for oil and fertilizers are projected to impact the Armenian economy within the coming months, generating new inflationary pressures.

Gortsarar aliq FM106.5 · 42 min