Economic Consequences of an EAEU Exit

A potential withdrawal of Armenia’s economy from the EAEU market would yield far more severe macroeconomic consequences today than it would have in 2018. Statistical data reveals that exports to Russia have increased more than fivefold, whereas exports to the EU have contracted by 5%. The EAEU absorbs 80-90% of Armenian agricultural exports, a sector that has already registered a cumulative decline of 18%. Armenia’s dependence on Russian fuel stands at approximately 95%, and any supply disruption would lead to unprecedented inflation in wheat and fertilizer prices. Penetrating European markets requires the creation of high value-added products and stringent standardization, demanding substantial capital expenditures rather than abrupt geopolitical decoupling.

NEWS AM · 23 min