Diversification or Economic Shock

Political statements advocating for a withdrawal from the EAEU market strongly contradict current macroeconomic realities, as exports to Russia have grown more than fivefold since 2018, while exports to the EU have shrunk by 5%. Expanding export volumes to the European market requires substantial capital expenditures in rigorous standardization, the absence of which acts as a prohibitive hidden tariff. Armenia’s economy exhibits severe structural imbalances: approximately 80% of the wage fund and retail credits are concentrated in Yerevan, whereas agriculture has suffered a cumulative decline of 18% over the past seven years. Opening the border with Turkey without robust domestic market protection mechanisms would exert massive pressure on local agriculture, leading to widespread bankruptcies and a socio-economic crisis.

Real News Armenia · 41 min