H1 “Public Discussion” · 47 minutes

“I have a saying: it is hard to tell where the truth lies, but it is not in lies, and I always try to present the right thing, based on the right data. Regardless of political statements, regardless of what Moscow or Yerevan declares, we should understand that the Republic of Armenia has always strived for the “both-and” formula — to be on good terms with both the EAEU states and the European Union. And let’s be honest with ourselves: the recent economic growth has been mainly because we have assisted Russia, which is under sanctions, as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran, so that their financial resources come to Armenia in other directions, and we are mediators. We have problems that are mainly due not to the European Union, but to the Russian Federation, because at the moment the EAEU agreement is not being fully implemented. Freedom of capital movement does not work, Russia has imposed certain restrictions on both capital outflow and inflow, and our agricultural exports have recently decreased by 50% compared to 2025. Diversification is being announced only now, because we are faced with a problem. They announced diversification, but dependence on Russia has increased even more. If we look, from 2018 to the end of 2025, Armenia’s exports to the EAEU and Russia increased four and a half times, while to the European Union there was none.”

“Even the possible 63% increase in gas prices, which we are talking about at the moment, does not correspond to the EAEU agreement, and this is more in the political sphere than in the economic one. As for diversification, gasoline in the Armenian market is already diversified. If in 2023 90% of gasoline came from the Russian Federation, now 20% comes, and that number is gradually decreasing. Now it comes from Turkey and Azerbaijan, but mainly from the Black Sea countries, and so we buy gasoline at international prices. The price will not increase by 60%, it will increase by 10-20%. We are an intermediary connecting the Russian Federation with the outside world. On the one hand, we are a member state of the EAEU and have good neighborly relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and on the other hand, we are a member of the international financial market. When money from these countries, driven by stress, comes to Armenia, it goes to other countries — Switzerland, the Emirates, etc., and on the other hand, the goods that the Russian Federation requires. I’m not only talking about re-export, but also, for example, cut flowers, for which there was no market in the Republic of Armenia before the sanctions. From this point of view, we are a kind of node for the Russian Federation, which is able to maintain financial and trade relations with the outside world to some extent. It’s not that Russia has nothing to lose at all.”

“We have a problem with electricity overall. The solar power plant being built in Armenia will account for about 10 percent of our annual electricity demand, and if we want to be a processing country, not a mineral producer, then we need to think long-term about increasing electricity production by 50 percent, even doubling it. Solar power has its problems: the peak during the day is at 12 o’clock, and peak consumption is in the evening, and this puts quite a lot of stress on the overall system, which is already in a stressed state. But we can build a pumped-storage power plant (PSPP). It’s two reservoirs, one at the bottom, one at the top. During peak solar power generation, we pump the water from the lower reservoir up, using electricity, and in the evening, as soon as we need electricity, the water goes back down. This will normalize solar power so that we can install even more solar power plants and meet our domestic demand. This is one of the alternative paths, because it may take quite a long time before the nuclear power plant issue is resolved.”

Topic Analysis: Energy problem: solar danger and summer records at the expense of Russian gas and Gasoline price shock: where did the Russian fuel disappear to?