80-90% of Armenian agricultural exports are traditionally sold in the EAEU, in particular in the Russian market. Since 2018, exports to the EAEU have grown 4.5 times, while exports to the EU have remained unchanged.

Mining products provided 87% of the growth toward Europe. “Made in Armenia” is not written on ore, and agriculture was left on the road.

In June-August, the export of banned products decreased by 44%. In the case of fresh agricultural products, losses ranged from 50 to 90%: the goods spoiled on the way.

Reaching the European market takes an additional two weeks. Customs duties are only part of the barriers. There are also quotas (the tomato market belongs to Portugal and Spain) and Turkish subsidies for fish. For fruits with a shelf life of several days, logistics and transportation are also a kind of “customs duty”.

The strategy should target products with low weight and high added value, the so-called “boutique” products: not tomatoes but dried tomatoes, not apricots but almonds. The diversification of fresh agricultural products should be directed not mainly towards the European Union, but towards the countries of the Middle East.

Between 2018 and the end of 2025, agriculture contracted by around 13% cumulatively, while the economy as a whole grew by more than 50%. In the second quarter of 2026, agriculture declined by 15.3%.

Russia’s restrictions are in open breach of the four freedoms written into Article 4 of the EAEU treaty. The same goes for the gas contract that expires at the end of 2026. What we need is a systemic policy, a master plan for agriculture and agricultural land and proper subsidies, not a diversification announced overnight.